Asian regional growth is expected to improve during the rest of 2013 and 2014 in line with our global outlook of strengthening external demand. However, in the near-term this performance will be uneven given diverging trends marked by a pick-up in North Asia, especially in China and Japan, and a slowdown elsewhere, most notably in India and Indonesia.
In China, improving growth momentum has given rise to a slightly higher full-year growth outlook of 7.7% in 2013, and 7.6% in 2014 as projected previously. However, medium term concerns persist on signs that rebalancing has been delayed and that financial fragilities have continued to grow.
Risks to the regional outlook stem from prospects of renewed capital outflows from QE tapering, and uncertainty about the sustainability of China’s growth momentum.