* The global economy improved in the last quarter as global financial tension continued to ease

* In Chile, the factors that have boosted domestic demand are expected to moderate, so GDP growth should reach 4.8% in both 2013 and 2014

* We see little room for a further fall in the price of tradable goods, so inflation is forecast to return to its target range mid-way through 2013 and close the year at 2.8% y/y

* We estimate that the Central Bank (BCCh) will maintain its pause in 2013, given the virtual balance between internal and external risks, although it has been rather more cautious in its statements in recent months

* The risks for the Chilean economy continue to be associated to a disruptive episode in Europe, though the various measures adopted by the economic authorities in developed and emerging economies have reduced the probability of this scenario. In contrast, the idiosyncratic risk of overheating has become more relevant