•A slow global recovery with downward risks.The economic cycle is improving in advanced economies, although it is still far from being a strong recovery.
•In Chile growth has shown clear signs of slowdown.We estimate GDP growth at 4.2% for 2013 and 4.0% for 2014.
•Inflation has been affected by the sudden drop in oil prices.We correct downwards our inflation forecast for 2013 to 2.2%. In 2014 inflation will end below 3%.
•The Central Bank will gradually cutthe reference rate to 4.0% by the second half of 2014.
•Government expenditure will not rise more than 3.2% in real terms in 2014in a scenario of a structural deficit of 1% of GDP and compliance with the official forecasts in 2013.
•The main risk is associated with a slowdown of the Chinese economy,with the resulting impact over copper prices.