Global economic growth should recover gradually in 2013 as European and US authorities clear up uncertainties.

Latin America looks set to grow 3.2% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013, driven by domestic demand and still high commodity prices. The downward revision to forecasts reflects both internal andexternal factors.

Latin America is mainly exposed to external risks deriving from the crisis in Europe and fiscal contraction in the US.

Monetary policy is shifting cautiously towards providing greater support to activity, given the uncertainty abroad and more benign inflation.

The region is prepared to weather a new global crisis,  although there is less scope for countercyclical policies. Potential complacency on the part of authorities poses the biggest threat.