In 2010, BBVA Research created a grouping of emerging markets1 called EAGLEs (Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies), whose contribution to world economic growth in the following ten years is expected to be larger than the average of the leading industrialized nations, namely the G6 countries (due to its size the US is excluded from the benchmark but not from comparisons with the EAGLEs).
As a part of the proposal, the EAGLEs' Nest was also created as a watch list of emerging countries with expected incremental GDP in the following ten years2 to be lower than the G6 average but higher than the smallest contributor of that group. Those economies could be part of the EAGLEs in the future if they are able to improve their performance above the current forecasts.
Membership to both groups was set to be updated on a yearly basis.
In the past two decades, we have witnessed the convergence of the share of world GDP between emerging and developed countries. This major transformation in the international investment scenario casts our focus on the growth-leading emerging economies. Static concepts cannot capture the dynamic panorama of emerging economies and investment opportunities should not be limited to the BRICs. Thus, a quantifiable and extensive spectrum of key emerging markets, such as EAGLEs, should be brought to the fore.
The EAGLEs concept is dynamic in the sense that it is not a fixed group of economies, but rather a club of elite emerging markets whose membership is revised once a year with the update of our forecasts.
BBVA Research is uniquely positioned to be a provider of information on emerging economies due to its presence in Latin America and Asia, and its long standing analysis of the emerging world. The BBVA EAGLEs initiative is part of an effort to make BBVA's knowledge on emerging markets available to clients and interested parties.
In addition to the annual EAGLEs Economic Outlook, the current stage of this project also includes quarterly reports and economic watches on ad-hoc issues.
In our 2013 EAGLEs Annual Report we identify 9 economies that fulfill the criteria to be an EAGLE: China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Korea, Turkey, Mexico and Taiwan.
Up to 14 countries are included in the Nest as we expect them to contribute more than Italy (with the smallest share in the G6) to world growth in the following ten years: Egypt (downgraded from the EAGLEs in 2012), Nigeria, Thailand, Colombia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Poland, Bangladesh, South Africa, the Philippines, Peru, Argentina, Pakistan and Chile (upgraded in 2012).
According to the 2013 update, the EAGLEs will explain a 57% of incremental world GDP between 2012 and 2022, 44 percentage points explained by China and India alone. The Nest group will contribute a 10%, the same as the US and above the G6 aggregate (7%).
Contribution to global growth in the next ten years
(1) The starting pool of 45 emerging markets is integrated by Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Rep, Egypt, Estonia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Jordan, Korea, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Slovak Rep., South Africa, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Taiwan, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, the UAE, Venezuela and Vietnam.
(2) The incremental GDP in the next ten years is equal to the difference between the GDP in ten year time and the current GDP.
Click here to access all EAGLEs Reports.