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Latest Releases

05/22/2013
Macroeconomic analysis

Fed Watch. FOMC Minutes: April 30th – May 1st

FOMC Holding Strong with Current Policy Accommodation
05/17/2013
Macroeconomic analysis

U.S. Economic Watch. Inflation Expectations: What Lies Ahead?

Current indicators suggest historically low expected inflation. Shocks to inflation expectations will affect both the level and slope of the yield curve
05/16/2013
Macroeconomic analysis

U.S. Economic Watch. CBO Releases Updated Budget Projections

Significant Improvements in Deficit Outlook for 2013 and Beyond
05/14/2013
Macroeconomic analysis

Presentation "Macroeconomic Forecasting and the Sustainability of Public Finances" - An Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority For Spain

Presentation by Rafael Domenech at IEF, Madrid, May 13!14, 2013

Reports

Title	File
05/22/2013 Fed Watch. FOMC Minutes: April 30th – May 1st FOMC Holding Strong with Current Policy Accommodation
05/01/2013 Fed Watch. FOMC Statement: April 30th – May 1st FOMC Conveys Elevated Level of Readiness to Tune QE to Change in Economic Conditions

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05/24/2013 U.S. Economic Watch. State Activity Indexes April 2013 In April, state activity increased in 32 states, decreased in 17 states and remained unchanged in 17 states
05/17/2013 U.S. Economic Watch. Inflation Expectations: What Lies Ahead? Current indicators suggest historically low expected inflation. Shocks to inflation expectations will affect both the level and slope of the yield curve
05/16/2013 U.S. Economic Watch. CBO Releases Updated Budget Projections Significant Improvements in Deficit Outlook for 2013 and Beyond

Title	File
04/29/2013 U.S. Economic Watch. State Activity Indexes. February 2013 In February, state activity increased in 35 states, while remaining unchanged in 15 states
04/01/2013 U.S. Economic Watch. State Activity Indexes, January 2013 In January, state activity increased in 34 states, decreased in one state -Alaska- and remained constant in remaining 15 states

Title	File
02/20/2013 U.S. Housing Watch. Low Inventory Boosting Home Prices Inventories of both new and existing single family homes for sale are at historic lows. Months’ supply is down to levels not seen since 2005
03/08/2012 U.S. Housing Market Outlook 2012 Rental demand surges, as home ownership declines. Home prices will continue to slide across the U.S. due to the high inventory of distressed properties

Title	File
03/22/2013 U.S. Economic Watch. Structural Series: Immigration Reform Enhancing Growth through Immigration Policy: An Update

Title	File
05/07/2013 U.S. Banking Watch. Consumer Credit: Monthly Situation Report March’s seasonally-adjusted consumer credit gain of $8.0bn suggests that consumers are not piling on as much credit as expected, with revolving credit falling $1.7bn
05/07/2013 U.S. Banking Watch. Senior Loan Officer Survey 2013Q2 Standards Ease on Escalating Loan Demand in 2Q13

Forecasts

Flash

Title	File
05/20/2013 U.S. Weekly Flash. Retail Sales Show Signs of Improvement Despite the Decline in Gas Prices The retail sales report for April showed a slight rise in consumer spending despite the call for a consensus decline
05/13/2013 U.S. Weekly Flash. Consumer Credit Gains Slow Significantly in March as Personal Spending Takes a Hit Total outstanding consumer credit continued to increase in March but at a much slower pace compared to previous months. Up only $8.0bn, this marks the slowest monthly increase since last July

Title	File
05/22/2013 Macroeconomic Analysis U.S. Housing Flash. Existing Home Sales Climb in April as Supply Rises Existing home sales for April reached 4.97M, the highest level since November 2009. The supply of existing homes reached 5.2 months to help boost overall sales
05/16/2013 Macroeconomic Analysis U.S. Inflation Flash. Headline Inflation Falls as Energy Prices Slump in April Headline inflation declined for the second straight, down 0.4%. Gasoline prices declined by 8.1%, its fastest downward move since late 2008

Events

Info	File
05/14/2013 An Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority For Spain at IEF, Madrid, May 13!14, 2013 Macroeconomic Forecasting and the Sustainability of Public Finances An Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority For Spain
05/09/2013 U.S. Monthly Outlook Slides May 2013

Working Papers

Title	File
11/23/2012 Human Capital and Income Inequality: Some Facts and Some Puzzles Using an updated data set on human capital inequality for 146 countries from 1950 to 2010 this paper documents some facts and puzzles regarding the evolution of income and human capital inequality Author: Amparo Castelló-Climenta, Rafael Doménech Nº 12/28
06/19/2012 Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models This paper proposes two refinements to the single-index dynamic factor model developed by Aruoba and Diebold (AD, 2010) to monitor US economic activity in real time Author: Máximo Camacho and Jaime Martínez-Martín Nº 12/10