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EMU
Latest Releases
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06/14/2013
Europe Economic Watch. Signs of recovery in the second quarter
But the carry-over effect of 1Q13 poses a downward bias to our forecast for 2013
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06/12/2013
Observatório Económico Portugal: Confirma-se a moderação da recessão no 1T (Portuguese version)
Apoiada pela recuperação das exportações que são a única fonte de crescimento
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05/14/2013
Presentation "Macroeconomic Forecasting and the Sustainability of Public Finances" - An Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority For Spain
Presentation by Rafael Domenech at IEF, Madrid, May 13!14, 2013
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05/10/2013
Europe Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2013
Risk events in Europe during the first quarter of the year, linked to Cyprus and Italy, have barely affected financial conditions
Reports
Central Banks
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06/07/2013 ECB Watch: ECB on hold and continues ready to act if neededThe ECB keeps rates. The prevailing consensus was that changes to the outlook were not enough to grant any immediate action |
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04/26/2013 ECB Watch: A rate cut in the near future is likely- Recent economic data disappoint, a worryingly gloomy outlook at the start of 2Q13 is spreading.- Dovish comments from ECB´s Governing Council members hint to a rate cut. |
Economic Analysis
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06/14/2013 Europe Economic Watch. Signs of recovery in the second quarterBut the carry-over effect of 1Q13 poses a downward bias to our forecast for 2013 |
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06/13/2013 Europe Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2013 (Chinese Version)今年第一季度欧洲发生的与塞浦路斯和意大利有关联的风险事件几乎没有影响到欧洲的金融状况。 |
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06/12/2013  Observatório Económico Portugal: Confirma-se a moderação da recessão no 1T (Portuguese version)
O PIB contraiu 0,4% t/t no 1T13, de acordo com as expectativas |
Forecasts
Flash
Flash
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06/14/2013 Macroeconomic Analysis Europe Flash: Inflation increased in May driven by higher services pricesWe expect higher inflation in June, but slowing again during the second half of the year |
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06/12/2013 Macroeconomic Analysis Europe Flash: Industrial production in the Eurozone improves in AprilIndustrial production suggests that business activity is already recovering in the second quarter of the year |
Events
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06/07/2013 GACE, Madrid, June 7th, 2013EMU: Political and Economic Crises A recovery strategy: a road map to a genuine EMU |
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05/14/2013 An Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority For Spain at IEF, Madrid, May 13!14, 2013
Macroeconomic Forecasting and the Sustainability of Public Finances An Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority For Spain |
Working Papers
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11/23/2012 Human Capital and Income Inequality: Some Facts and Some Puzzles
Using an updated data set on human capital inequality for 146 countries from 1950 to 2010 this paper documents some facts and puzzles regarding the evolution of income and human capital inequality Author: Amparo Castelló-Climenta, Rafael DoménechNº 12/28 |
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06/28/2012 Fiscal Devaluations in EMUOur simulations results point to positive significant effects of a fiscal devaluation on GDP and employment in Spain, similar to the ones that could be obtained with a exchange rate devaluation Author: J.E. Boscá, R. Doménech and J. FerriNº 12/11 |