Reports

 

Economic Analysis

DateDescription
02/27/2014

Colombia will grow by 4.7% and 5.1% in 2014 and 2015. Robust household consumption, slow recovery of the industrial sector and civil works execution from 2015 onwards will be the key drivers of growth

  • The global economic cycle is strengthening, but some countries are exposed to the withdrawal of US monetary stimulus.
  • Colombia will grow by 4.7% and 5.1% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Household consumption will continue to expand and other drivers will be the recovery of the industrial sector as well as civil works execution from 2015 onwards.
  • Inflation will slowly converge with the long-term target in 2014. We anticipate the first change in monetary policy stance towards the end of the second quarter.
  • The withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the US and the elections in 2014 will give rise to volatility in the local markets in the first half of the year. We are forecasting mild peso depreciation over the year.
02/19/2014

Latam will grow 2.5% in 2014 and 2.6% in 2015 with increasing differentiation among countries. Pacific Alliance growth will be close to 4%, more than double the rate of Mercosur countries

  • Global expansion will continue in 2014 (3.6%) and 2015 (3.9%), this time with a greater contribution from developed economies.
  • Financial tensions return to emerging economies, but markets will start to differentiate between countries depending on their fundamentals and the soundness of their economic policies.
  • Latam will grow 2.5% in 2014 and 2.6% in 2015 with increasing differentiation between countries. The Pacific Alliance will grow 3.8% in 2014, while Mercosur will do so by 1.5%.
  • External deficits will start to go down from 2014 onwards. These deficits are still financed with long-term capital. Even so, the region shows a certain loss of competitiveness in the last few years.
  • Most countries in the region have good buffers to withstand the Fed’s tapering, but in the light of less expansive financial conditions countries will reflect the difference between their fundamentals more clearly.

Presentation

12/20/2013

Good employment data for Colombia: while employment grows at lower rates, its composition has improved. The challenge is to continue creating good quality jobs.

    11/29/2013

    Estimation of the NIR for Colombia using a dynamic methodology. The monetary stance is forecasted using local and external determinants of NIR.

      11/15/2013

      Global economic cycle is improving. Colombia will grow 4.1% in 2013 and 4.7% in 2014. We anticipate the first change in the monetary stance in the second quarter of next year.

      • The global economic cycle is improving, but it is still far from reflecting a strong recovery.
      • GDP growth in the second quarter provided a positive surprise. However, we maintain our growth forecast of 4.1% for 2013 and a consolidation at 4.7% in 2014.
      • Inflation will be slightly below the midpoint of the target range in 2013 and increase steadily in 2014 to 3.2%. We anticipate the first change in the monetary stance in the second quarter of next year.
      • The elections in 2014 and the withdrawal of monetary stimulus measures in the United States will generate volatility in local markets. We expect a slight depreciation of the Colombian peso.
      10/16/2013

      High potential and major challenges to successful integration

        08/13/2013

        Maintain the growth forecast of 4.1% of GDP for 2013. We expect a consolidation of growth in 2014 to 4.7%.

        • Growth slowed in emerging economies, but a gradualrecovery is consolidating in developed economies.
        • The Colombian economy lost some momentum in the first quarter, but this did not compromise our GDP growth forecast of 4.1% for 2013. We expect growth to consolidate in 2014 to 4.7%.
        • Inflation will be slightly below the midpoint of the target range in 2013 (2.7%) and higher in 2014 (3.2%). We do not expect a change in monetary policy until the second quarter of 2014.
        • The withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the United States may continue to generate volatility in local markets. As the Colombian economy consolidates, we expect an appreciation of the Colombian peso in 2014.

        Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2013

        05/09/2013

        The economy will gradually pick up pace at the end of 2013 and in 2014. We maintain our growth forecast for 2013 at 4.1%.

        • Global growth continues its steady recovery, but uneven prospects for the developed economies are limiting the strength of GDP growth in 2013 and 2014.
        • The economy will gradually pick up pace at the end of 2013 and in 2014. We maintain our growth forecast for 2013 at 4.1%. The negative effects of the first quarter will be fully offset by the greater economic policy stimuli.
        • The Central Bank will maintain current monetary conditions for the rest of 2013 and part of 2014. There will be steady convergence of inflation towards the center of the target range in 2013 and 2014.
        02/14/2013

        Colombia’s economy will increase its growth rate in 2013 and 2014 by 4.1% and 5.0% a year, respectively, after having bottomed out at the end of last year

        • The global economic climate is looking better due to less financial stress in Europe, the deal to avoid the so-called “fiscal cliff” in the United States and the resilience shown by emerging markets
        • Private consumption will be the main factor behind the recovery, along with an optimistic outlook on infrastructure projects during both years
        • Inflation is likely to stay below the midpoint of the inflation target range in 2013 and converge at 3% in 2014. We expect the Central Bank to hang onto its expansionary stance in 2013 and start increasing rates in the second quarter of 2014
        11/20/2012

        The Colombian economy will grow by 4.3% in 2012 and 4.4% in 2013. The slowdown in private demand will be compensated by increased execution of public works

        • Global growth will improve in 2013, supported by the policy measures of the central banks and European authorities
        • The Central Bank will continue to watch the global situation and how this is passed on to the local economy. The exchange rate will remain under pressure from foreign direct investment inflows and greater international liquidity
        • Progress will continue in consolidating the fiscal balance, while public investment will remain buoyant throughout 2012 and 2013

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